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The impact of the declining birthrate on adult-focused opportunities

We've written about the ongoing decline in the birthrate since 2007 and its impact on the family agritourism market. The 2025 birthrate was one-sixth lower than in 2007. There are 8.1 million fewer children today than there would be if the 2007 birthrate had remained unchanged. 

As a result of the declining birthrate, the number of households with children headed by an adult under 45, the primary target market for most family events that are more focused on children ages 2-12, is decreasing, while the number of <45 households without children has been rising.

Since 2015, the number of <45 households with children has declined by 1.7 million, to 45% of all <45 households, while the number of <45 households without children has increased by 5.0 million, to 55% of all <45 households.

The largest increase in households without children has occurred among households headed by adults ages 25-34, the bullseye target age for most younger adult-oriented events. Their numbers have increased by 29%, or 3.0 million.

If current trends continue, in ten years, the number of <45 households with children will decline by another 1.8 million, to 39% of all <45 households, while <45 households without children will increase by another 5.0 million, to 61% of all households.

Adults without children, as well as many adults with kids who want a night out without the kids, make up a large market for adult-focused events without kids or teenagers, larger than the family market. This is a great opportunity for agritourism farms to grow by programming adult-only events.

Adult-oriented location-based entertainment centers (LBEs) have expanded significantly, including boutique bowling and competitive socializing venues such as TopGolf, Flight Club, Puttery, and many others. These adult-oriented LBEs offer high-quality, on-trend food and beverage and good hospitality, raising adults' expectations. As a result, the bar is higher now for adult-focused events than for family-focused ones.

This is definitely not good news for family-focused agritourism events, as the number of children and households with children continues to decline. At the same time, it presents a significant opportunity for farms to host adult events to expand their business

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